So 600 character shards to Max LB, if we get:
120 from the shop
70 from visiore consumption bonus
50 from the hard quest
Will the other 360 shards come from the choco hunts only or is there some other way to get them (other than re-rolls)?
Not quite. The 18,000 and 6,000 would form part of the 50,000. That would leave you 24,000 to pull WOL which works out at a 62% chance to max at 50,000 assuming the 18K works out. After that you get roughly another 2-3% chance for each additional 2,000.
This is really bad, first day of WOL, had no shards from regular shops and whimsy shops at all. Refreshed 3 times with the free, 10 vis and 50 vis. Instead of getting WOL shards we are getting the featured summon shards and the drop rates at matoya caves, 0 WOL shards and armour recipe for 1 whole day even using some +2 hr chocobo tickets.